On September 17th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the statistical data of the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August this year. In August, the prices of new commercial housing in 55 cities rose month-on-month, 5 cities less than that in July. The picture shows a real estate for sale in Rugao, Nantong, Jiangsu. Photo by Wu Shujian (People’s Vision)
On September 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released statistics on the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August 2019. Overall, in the month of August, whether it was new commercial housing or second-hand housing, the cities with rising prices were 55 cities and 43 cities respectively, and the number dropped significantly compared with last month. Analysts pointed out that although the traditional sales season of "Golden September and Silver 10" is approaching, the overall stable situation of the local property market has continued, which on the one hand reflects the effect of regulatory policies, and on the other hand reflects that the positioning of "houses are used for living, not for speculation" is profoundly changing the development pattern of the real estate market.
The overall situation continued to be stable.
According to Peng Kong, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, according to preliminary calculations, the sales prices of new commercial housing in four first-tier cities increased by 0.3% month-on-month, which was the same as last month, with Beijing rising by 0.5%, Shanghai rising by 0.3% and Guangzhou and Shenzhen both rising by 0.2%; It rose by 4.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point from last month. The sales price of second-hand houses was flat month-on-month, rising by 0.3% last month, of which Beijing fell by 0.4%, Shanghai and Guangzhou were flat, and Shenzhen rose by 0.2%; It fell by 0.2% year-on-year, which was the first decline since June last year. The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in 31 second-tier cities increased by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively from the previous month, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. It rose by 9.9% and 5.5% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.8 and 1.2 percentage points respectively from last month.
At the same time, in August, the sales price of new commercial housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.7% month-on-month, the same as last month; It rose by 9.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points from last month. The sales price of second-hand houses increased by 0.8% month-on-month, with an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month; It rose by 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points from last month.
According to Yan Yuejin, the research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, due to the recent cooling of the housing transaction market, the tightening of the real estate financing environment, and the tightening of the funds in place for housing enterprises, housing enterprises in various places have taken the initiative to reduce prices and promote sales, which has led to a narrowing of the growth rate of the housing price index in 70 cities across the country. At present, the property market is entering a cooling channel, especially in second-tier cities, which has a positive effect on stabilizing housing prices in second-tier cities and preventing real estate speculation by borrowing talents from all over the world.
The policy supports "housing and not speculation"
The real estate market continues to remain stable, which is inseparable from the strict control of policies. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that from the central bank to China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the risk control of real estate finance has been intensively strengthened, and various financing channels from real estate mortgage to housing enterprises have been tightened to varying degrees.
The central bank recently reformed and improved the formation mechanism of the loan market quotation rate (LPR) to further reduce the financing cost of the real economy. In this process, in order to resolutely implement the positioning of "houses are used for living, not for speculation" and the long-term management mechanism of the real estate market, ensure the effective implementation of the regional differentiated housing credit policy, and keep the interest rate of individual housing loans basically stable, the central bank has simultaneously adopted "the shortest repricing period is one year", "the interest rate of commercial housing purchase loans shall not be lower than the quoted market interest rate of the corresponding term loans plus 60 basis points" and "the interest rate of two sets of commercial individual housing loans shall not be lower than the quoted market interest rate of the corresponding term loans plus 60 basis points".
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that it will speed up the promotion of housing security legislation, clarify the top-level design and basic institutional framework of housing security at the national level, consolidate the responsibility of housing security at all levels of government, and provide a legal basis for regulating the access and use of affordable housing.
"In recent years, the whole society has become more and more deeply aware of the return of real estate to residential properties, and the intensity and resilience of real estate regulation and control policies have become greater and greater. Recently, while releasing funds to reduce the financing cost of the real economy, the financial authorities have also made structural arrangements specifically to avoid capital flowing into the real estate market. It can be said that the persistence of real estate control policies and the establishment of a long-term mechanism are playing an increasingly obvious role. " Yi Cong, a professor at the School of Economics of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with this reporter.
Take the initiative to get rid of "real estate dependence"
At the recent press conference held by the State Council, Shen Xiaoming, Governor of Hainan Province, said that for a long time, Hainan’s real estate accounted for about 50% of investment and 50% of tax revenue, and its economy relied heavily on real estate. However, real estate needs land, which will increase the environmental load, while Hainan’s land resources are getting less and less, and the environmental load also has a "ceiling". Therefore, economic development cannot be sustained by real estate.
“1— In August, under the background that the real estate sales area decreased by 52%, the real estate sales decreased by 50%, and the national tax reduction and fee reduction, the regional GDP of the whole province increased by 5.4%, and there was no economic ups and downs caused by real estate regulation. It is expected that by the end of the first quarter of next year, the downward pressure on the economy caused by the downward adjustment of old kinetic energy will be basically released, and the dividends generated by new kinetic energy will gradually accumulate. Therefore, we expect Hainan’s economy to enter a benign and rapid development track at the end of the first quarter of next year. " Shen Xiaoming said.
Yi Cong said that adhering to the regulation policy of the real estate market and ensuring the healthy development of the real estate market is not to stop developing the real estate industry, but to make the real estate development and the development of the real economy complement each other and provide support for people to live and work in peace and contentment, entrepreneurship and innovation.
Deng Yusong, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said that the demand caused by the demolition of old houses, the influx of new population and the shrinking of families is normal, and the subsequent demand will be affected if more demand is released in the short term. Deng Yusong predicted that the situation of concentrated demand release and hot sales in small and medium-sized cities like in the past two years could not last for a long time.